8.1: world population modelling
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This activity has been designed to help you understand more about the limitations of population modelling and give you lots of practice of typical examination questions. The three activities should take around 30-40 mins to complete.
Read the following information and complete the task which follows
Source: World Population Prospects 2019
China (1.44 billion) and India (1.39 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 per cent of the world’s population, respectively. Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, while China’s population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. |
1. Using the information contained in figure 1, complete this bar chart of world population
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- What is the median population projected to be in 2100?
- What is the difference between the low and highest projection in 2100?
- Suggest how an increase in education of women could be a reason for a possible decline in the world population by 2100
- Apart from education of women, identify two other reasons for population decline
- Explain two disadvantages of modelling population growth in this way
Firstly, read this article from Nature and answer the following questions. If you can't access the article, you can use the information in the PDF worksheet to complete the questions.
- State 2 ways in which the Singaporean government tried to dissuade people from having more than 2 children in the 1980’s
- How successful was this policy?
- Identify three reasons why governments need to have accurate population projections.
- What is meant by the term “census”?
- What is the difference between the terms fertility rate and replacement rate?
6. The graph above shows three projections of the global population by three different organisations. Which organisation has the highest projection?
7. Instead of relying on past data (like the UN have) the International Institute for Applied Systems analysis have used what method instead?
8. The IHME team did things differently again. Instead of basing its model on fertility rates, and how they would change, the group used a variable called completed cohort fertility at 50 years (CC50). This counts the number of children each woman has had by the time she reaches 50. What is the advantage of this method?
9. What are some of the potential dangers in modelling population growth like this?
10. Outline two other ways in which accurate baseline data of current human population can be gathered
This activity focuses on the limitations of modelling human population growth (a favourite question in exams). The article and graphs used are very recent so may differ slightly from ones used in past papers. This itself is an interesting point to make to students. The third activity should generate some good discussions.