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Paper 3 question on balance of payments and FDI

Paper 3 sample question

IB Economics Paper 3 includes two compulsory questions. This is a sample Paper 3 question. The time allowed for Paper 3 is 105 minutes, so students should spend 52.5 minutes on each question. 

This Paper 3 style question is on the balance of payments and FDI.

Balance of payments

The following is a balance of payments for a country in 2023 / 2024:

Balance of payments figures in $ billion (debits) + credits20232024
Exports of goods500,100550,110
Imports of goods485,000490,500
Visible trade balance

15,100

59,610

Exports of services240,000248,000
Imports of services175,000148,750
Invisible trade balance

65,000

99,250

Income from overseas investments200,000220,000
Income paid to overseas investors250,000212,500
Net income received

(50,000)

7,500

Current account balance

30,100

166,360

Net capital transactions 500 550
Net Direct Investment, including portfolio investment35,00034,500
Balancing item

(65,600)

(201,410)

Balance of payments00
Questions

(a) Define the following terms:

i. current account [1 mark] 

The sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports minus imports), net income from abroad, and net current transfers.

ii. capital account [1 mark] 

A measure of the transfer of assets and liabilities into and out of a nation.

iii. balancing item [1 mark] 

Used to offset the balance of credits and debits into and out a country.

iv. visible trade balance [1 mark] 

The value of visible exports (export of physical goods) minus the value of visible imports (import of physical goods).

v. invisible trade balance [1 mark] 

The value of invisible exports (export of services) minus the value of invisible imports (import of services).

(b) Complete the table above by filling in the missing blanks [2 marks] 

(c) Calculate the % rise in total exports between years 2023 and 2024? [2 marks]

The rise in total exports is (550,110 + 248,000) - (500,100 + 240, 000) =  58,010 / (500,100 + 240,000) x 100 = 7.84 %.

(d) Calculate the % fall in total imports between years 2023 and 2024? [2 marks]

The fall in total imports is ( 490,500 + 148,750 ) - (485,000 + 175,000)  = 20,750  / (485,000 + 175,000) x 100 = 3.14 %.

(e) Calculate the % change to the current account between years 2023 and 2024.  [2 marks]

This is equal to (166,360 - 30,100) / 30,100 x 100 = 452.7 %.

(f) Explain how direct foreign investment and income from investment are both recorded differently in a nation's balance of payments.  [2 marks]

FDI involving the purchase of overseas assets is recorded in the financial account, while the income earned from that investment is recorded in a nation's current account.

(g) Suggest two possible reasons for the large rise in the current account surplus between 2023 and 2024. [2 marks]

The sharp rise in the current account surplus has been caused by an increase in sales of exports overseas as well as a decline in the volume of imports purchased by its citizens.  There has also been a sharp fall in profits repatriated overseas and these collectively indicate that the economy is suffering from weak economic activity overall relative to their main trading partners.  The sharp rise in exports suggests not only that the country is producing products which are popular around the world but also that those economies are generally increasing their demand levels.  By contrast the sharp fall in import levels suggests that domestic consumers are cutting back on their expenditure.

This is also supported by the decline in revenues made by overseas investors, equal to 15%.  This also suggests sluggish economic activity in the country.  It is unlikely that the country improved their trading balance by imposing tariffs on imported goods because this measure would have probably brought retaliatory action from their trading partners which did not happen (exports increased).

(h)  Explain the likely impact on a nation's financial account when a current account is in surplus.  [3 marks]

Presuming that there are no other changes in the capital account, a surplus on the current account will cause need to be balanced out by a deficit on the (capital + financial account).  This may be the result of an increase in central bank foreign currency reserves, lending to overseas investors or the purchase of international assets, such as property or shares to overseas buyers.

(i) Suggest an appropriate policy that the government could take in order to correct a current account surplus. [10 marks].

Command term: Recommend—present an advisable course of action with appropriate supporting evidence/reason in relation to a given situation, problem or issue.

A suitable policy that might be effective in correcting a current account surplus might be contractionary monetary policy in the form of higher interest rates to revalue/appreciate the exchange rate, making a nation's exports less competitive and imports cheaper. This could be illustrated by diagram 1, where following a rise in interest rates (by the central bank) hot money flows come into the country, increasing demand for the currency - in this case the $.

In the diagram, higher interest rates have increased the value of the $ has risen from 1.28 Euros to 1.1 Euros - an appreciaiton of the currency.

Responses should also include possible reasons why a naiton might wish to correct a current account surplus. For example, to guard against other nations deciding to impose tariff barriers or other protectionist measures on the nation with the surplus.

Identify the strengths of the policy in terms of correcting a current account surplus, as well as other benefits of the policy, such as lower inflation.

Evaluation/synthesis might include a discussion of the costs of the policy, for example, higher interest rates will also icnrease the cost of borrowing reducing investment and consumption levels in the economy. Responses might also note that reduced consumption in the economy might lower import sales, further adding to the current account surplus. The response should also include an overall justification of the policy in terms of whether the country will benefit from the policy or not?

Other examples of relevant policies to promote the university education might be:

  • supply side policies
  • policies aimed at deregulation of trade policies aimed at raising import levels
  • direct intervention in foreign currency markets
  • a combination of policies.

Responses in section (i) should be graded according to the following mark bands:

Maximum mark 10

Criteria

Mark

There is no clear policy answer to the question but some limited:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

1-2

There is a policy answer to the question with limited:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

3-4

There is a clear policy answer to the question with satisfactory:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

5-6

There is a clear policy answer to the question with good:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

7-8

There is a clear policy answer to the question with excellent:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

9-10

Question 2

Maximum mark for this question 30

(a) State two components of a nation's balance of payments.  [2 marks]

The current account, capital account, the financial account and the balancing item.

(b) Define the terms:

i. Net factor income from abroad [1 mark]

The difference between income earned from abroad by normal residents of a country (from rent, interest, wages e.t.c.) and the income earned by non-residents (foreigners) in that country.

ii. Current account deficit [1 mark]

When a country imports more goods, services, and capital than it exports. It encompasses the trade deficit plus capital like net income and transfer payments.

iii. Balance of payments [1 mark]

A statement of all transactions made between entities in one country and the rest of the world over a defined period of time.

(c) The diagram to the right illustrates the market for US$, relative to the Chinese Yuan.  Explain using the diagram the effect of a rise in demand for Chinese products (in both nations) on the diagram. [2 marks]

If Chinese products become more popular then there will be a rise in demand for Chinese imports in the USA, represented by a rise in the supply of $s.  Demand for $s will fall because other nations (including China) will demand US$ (because demand for US products will become relatively less popular).

(d) The PED of a nation's exports is 0.5, while the PED of their imports is 0.7.  Is the nation likely to benefit from an improvement in its current account following a 10% devaluation?  [2 marks]

Yes according to the Marshall-Lerner condition the combined PED elasticity of both exports and imports is greater than 1.

(e) Complete the following table, presuming an exchange rate of £ 1 = 1.2 and CHF 1 = 1.05Є .  [2 marks]

Value of exports in ЄValue of imports in ЄValue of exports in local currency Value of imports in local currency Current account balance in local currency
UK100 bn170 bn

£ 83.3 bn (100 / 1.2)

£ 141.7 bn (170 / 1.2)

(£ 58.4 bn)

Switzerland40 bn30 bn

38 bn CHF (40 x 0.95)

28.5 bn CHF (30 x 0.95)

9.5 bn CHF

(f) Both nations devalue their currency by 10%, relative to the Є.

i. Calculate the new exchange rates of both currencies to the Є.  [2 marks]

£ = 1.08 Є, CHF = 0.94 Є 

ii. Complete the following table with the new exchange rates, presuming that UK exports have a PED of 0.5 and their imports a PED of 1.  Switzerland's exports have a PED of 0.3 and the imports 0.2.  [2 marks]

Value of exports in local currencyValue of imports in local currencyCurrent account balance in local currency
UK
87.47 bn (83.3 x 5% the PED of exports)
141.7 bn (unchanged because the PED = 1)

(54.23 bn)

Switzerland
39.14 bn (38 x 3% PED of exports)
29.07 bn (28.5 x 2%)

10.07 bn

iii. Which of the two nations has enjoyed the greater benefit from the devaluation?  [1 mark]

UK because the combined elasticities of both exports and imports is greater than 1.

(g) The diagram to the right illustrates a J curve

i. At which points will the Marshall-Lerner condition be satisfied?  [1 mark]

After point Y

ii. Why does the current account deficit continue to worsen between points X and Y? [1 mark]

Between points X and Y the combined elasticities of both exports and imports < 1.

iii. Why does the current account deficit improve between points Y and Z? [2 marks]

Between points Y and Z the combined elasticities of both exports and imports > 1.

(h) Suggest an appropriate policy that the government could take in order to correct a current account deficit. [10 marks].

Possible policies may include (but are not restricted to):

  • contractionary monetary policy
  • supply side policies
  • export promotion strategies
  • trade barriers aimed at restricting import levels
  • direct intervention in foreign currency markets
  • a combination of policies.

Responses in section (h) should be graded according to the following mark bands:

Maximum mark 10

Criteria

Mark

There is no clear policy answer to the question but some limited:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

1-2

There is a policy answer to the question with limited:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

3-4

There is a clear policy answer to the question with satisfactory:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

5-6

There is a clear policy answer to the question with good:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

7-8

There is a clear policy answer to the question with excellent:

  • Appropriate policy
  • Use of economic terms
  • Application of economic theory
  • Use of information from the text to support the recommendation
  • Evaluation / balance

9-10

Paper three questions are available as a PDF file at: Paper three questions

Suggested responses available at: Mark scheme

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